Egypt update

Egypt is still at a boiling point and hopefully a tipping point. This has been simmering for years. On my first trip to Egypt in 1992, Mubarak was referred to as "The Laughing Cow," not exactly a term of endearment. He is not likely to survive this if the army sides with citizens. The army is the force in Egypt and very popular with the people, and is unlikely to shoot at its own citizens. All the scenes of protest on TV are taking place in very familiar places. I have often walked on the street along the Nile in Cairo and have visited Alexandria often. My friends out near Benha City are not experiencing any of these troubles and life goes on there as before. Glad to be right here watching it on TV.

Muslims taking over the world?

Anyone who lived through the 60s (and can remember doing so) recalls race riots, black power, burning cities and the general chaos that existed throughout our land. At the time, many white people worried they would be swept over in a rising tide of black nationalism. The disparity in birth rates between whites and blacks was interpreted by some to mean that blacks would soon be the majority and whites the minority.

Of course, that never happened. In fact, what did happen is that black people were finally integrated into American society as equals, no longer second class citizens. Today we even have a semi-black president. As is so often the case, we tend to demonize that which we don't know, including ethnic groups, races and religions. Amazingly, once we get to know people and find out they are just like us on the inside, it is difficult to see any demons.

What evolved with African-Americans, will also evolve with Muslim-Americans. It will also happen much faster than it ever will in Europe. Europe's Muslim-phobia is the result of so many people from Muslim countries (usually the countries once colonized by those same Europeans), coming to Europe for a better life. The latest expression of that phobia is the fear that the Muslim population is growing so fast, there will soon be more brown-skinned Muslims than white Christians.

Sounds like the 60s all over again. Part of the problem is that in Europe, like America in our recent past, immigrants are not well integrated into society. In Europe, they tend to collect in Muslim ghettos and typically can only find work in lower end jobs. There, they struggle with poverty and anger at their situation.

The Muslim population in Europe could well double over the next 10-20 years, but even then, they will still be a minority. The facts also seem to indicate that the birth rate among Muslims is slowing down, to the point it is not much higher than our average birth rate in the US, and the trend is for the birth rate to decrease further. In Western societies, as people became more educated, women were incorporated into the workforce and opportunities improved, the birth rate decreased. That will also happen in the Muslim world if given the chance (see my other new post).

Here in the States, Muslims have always integrated into our society well (check out the number of medical professionals in our community with Muslim names). It is only since 9-11 that Muslims have been demonized is some quarters. Those who go on TV and talk about burning Korans, terror babies, Shari'a law replacing our constitution and other nonsense, sound just like those guys in the white hoods who warned of the 'black takeover' 50 years ago. It's best to ignore the wingnuts and treat people the same as we want to be treated.

Unrest in Egypt

Sorry for being 'off the air' so long. Too many other commitments.

But since most of you reading this know my association with Egypt, I want to comment on the situation there and in other Arab countries, including Tunisia. I have visited Egypt almost every year since 1992 and have many friends there. It is a country with many strengths and weaknesses. Anyone who has visited the country knows one of its important strengths lies in the people of Egypt. If you look back over its 6,000 years of continuous history, Egypt has existed under the control of many different governments, from Greeks and Romans to French and English. These people are experts at living under all sorts of regimes and one reason they have been so adaptable is their family orientation.

They are used to presidents who consider the job a lifelong appointment. Since 1952 they have had only three presidents -- Nassar, Sadat and Mubarak. In each case -- if we compare it to the American system -- these men were good for the country during their first eight years in office. If those three had served their two terms and then stepped aside, Egypt could have been a first rate democracy. But the power of the ring (to borrow a Tolkein vehicle) was too compelling.

Too much of Egypt's budget goes to keeping Mubarak in power -- allowing his buddies to enrich themselves in exchange for loyalty, paying for ever-increasing security, and when the people get too restless, bribing them with raises (government is the largest employer other than farming) or subsidized bread. To keep everyone employed, the government simply created three faux jobs out of every real job and divided that one job's salary into three salaries. As they say in Egypt, 'the government pretends to pay us and we pretend to work.'

Now Mubarak is 82, in office for 30 years, and by most independent accounts, in failing health. He is grooming his son to take over as president. But the people have had enough. After all, they all get satellite TV and see how we live. With rising prices, little opportunity (half of college graduates cannot find work) and an oppressive government, the people do not want another Mubarakacrat in office.

This unrest all began last month in Tunisia. I was in Tunisia several years ago and, though small, it is the most prosperous North African country. The average income of $8,000 is highest in the Arab world. It is entirely Muslim, but very secular. It does all its international business with Europe to the point that the workweek in Tunisia is the same as Europe, Monday-Friday. So why the angry protests? President Ben Ali, both the country's savior and its scourge, would also have left a positive legacy if he stepped down after eight years, but instead was forced to flee the country after 23 years in power. Tunisians are more middle class on average than other Arab people, but they too are tired of a self-serving government using its resources primarily to remain in power.

Where will it all end? From my perspective, it will eventually end with new leadership, brought to power by the will of the people, who will then overstay their welcome by decades and history will repeat itself in another 30 years.