But since most of you reading this know my association with Egypt, I want to comment on the situation there and in other Arab countries, including Tunisia. I have visited Egypt almost every year since 1992 and have many friends there. It is a country with many strengths and weaknesses. Anyone who has visited the country knows one of its important strengths lies in the people of Egypt. If you look back over its 6,000 years of continuous history, Egypt has existed under the control of many different governments, from Greeks and Romans to French and English. These people are experts at living under all sorts of regimes and one reason they have been so adaptable is their family orientation.
They are used to presidents who consider the job a lifelong appointment. Since 1952 they have had only three presidents -- Nassar, Sadat and Mubarak. In each case -- if we compare it to the American system -- these men were good for the country during their first eight years in office. If those three had served their two terms and then stepped aside, Egypt could have been a first rate democracy. But the power of the ring (to borrow a Tolkein vehicle) was too compelling.
Too much of Egypt's budget goes to keeping Mubarak in power -- allowing his buddies to enrich themselves in exchange for loyalty, paying for ever-increasing security, and when the people get too restless, bribing them with raises (government is the largest employer other than farming) or subsidized bread. To keep everyone employed, the government simply created three faux jobs out of every real job and divided that one job's salary into three salaries. As they say in Egypt, 'the government pretends to pay us and we pretend to work.'
Now Mubarak is 82, in office for 30 years, and by most independent accounts, in failing health. He is grooming his son to take over as president. But the people have had enough. After all, they all get satellite TV and see how we live. With rising prices, little opportunity (half of college graduates cannot find work) and an oppressive government, the people do not want another Mubarakacrat in office.
This unrest all began last month in Tunisia. I was in Tunisia several years ago and, though small, it is the most prosperous North African country. The average income of $8,000 is highest in the Arab world. It is entirely Muslim, but very secular. It does all its international business with Europe to the point that the workweek in Tunisia is the same as Europe, Monday-Friday. So why the angry protests? President Ben Ali, both the country's savior and its scourge, would also have left a positive legacy if he stepped down after eight years, but instead was forced to flee the country after 23 years in power. Tunisians are more middle class on average than other Arab people, but they too are tired of a self-serving government using its resources primarily to remain in power.
Where will it all end? From my perspective, it will eventually end with new leadership, brought to power by the will of the people, who will then overstay their welcome by decades and history will repeat itself in another 30 years.
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