Monday, February 7, 2011

Egypt's more serious problem is...

Regardless of how the situation in Egypt turns out, unless the country addresses it's most serious problem, things are bound to get worse. That problem is overpopulation. In 1961, Egypt had 10 million hectares of arable land and 15 million people. They were a net exporter of foodstuffs. (Egypt had been the breadbasket of the Roman Empire and its successors.) Today, Egypt has 11 million hectares of arable land and 80 million people! That number continues to grow at the rate of about a million every nine months. And where are those people going to live? There are laws preventing construction on farmland (unless you have the money to bribe a government official), so the only option is for people to build on their existing homes. Keep in mind that 95% of Egypt is the Sahara Desert and 95% of the population lives on 5% of the land. The country is now a net importer of grain and other staples, so much of their cash goes to feeding its people. Not only that, the bread Egyptian bakeries bake from that grain is government subsidized so the people pay about a penny a loaf.

History has shown that the only way to slow population growth is to provide education and good paying jobs. Having a large family was acceptable, even necessary when farmers needed plenty of help growing and harvesting crops. You don't need a large family cramped up in a small apartment in a Cairo slum with one wage earner bringing home enough money each day so the family can eat that day.

'Be fruitful and multiply' might be a Bible directive (and yes, Muslims have the same Bible), but back when the Bible was written, world population of humans amounted to about 100 million. Now it's seven billion. Let's not be so fruitful.

On  the positive side, the Egyptian people have a great deal of national pride. They are the only nation in the Middle East intact for 6,000 years while most other nations were created by the British or French in the 20th century. They love American culture and people (not so much the American government), they are industrious (I have rarely run into people looking for handouts) and highly family oriented. But deep in Cairo's morbidly overcrowded slums, where poverty and hopelessness abound, the promises of religious fundamentalism can override any sense of pride. The question to ask there is what kind of economic miracle in this desert country could generate the jobs these million new residents need every nine months.

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